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Prediction for CME (2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-06-02T06:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20403/-1
CME Note: The likely source for this CME is a filament eruption which is centered around on S35W40 best seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304 A starting around 2022-06-02T05:20Z, though it was noted in SDO 171 that faint field lines were seen leaving the disk which were out-ahead of the eruption off the limb and not associated with the filamentary material. Clear arrival signature at L1: sudden increase in B total to approximately 11.5 nT (eventually going to over 14 nT), accompanied by a sharp temporary increase in density to 51 n(cm^-3) and ion temperature. Clear shock in the magnetic field, rotation of the Bz component (briefly reaching -11 nT), gradual rotation of Bx. Solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to approximately 315 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-06T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-05T04:34Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-06-02 13:03
 - Time at C2: 2022-06-02 06:09
 - Radial speed: 519.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S08W33
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 561.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-06-05 04:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.42 hours)
Lead Time: 89.00 hour(s)
Difference: 28.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-06-02T16:20Z
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